A research firm released a report looking at projected school facility need for the Castaic community, which provides insight on expectations for the area.

The report, which is expected to be discussed at the upcoming Castaic Union School District board meeting Thursday, July 13, predicts as many as 261 fewer students for the K-8 district in the next three years.

Click here for the complete report.

The information came with numerous cautions, namely that while a potential enrollment decline could severely impact funding, housing and a number of other factors also could affect enrollment projections.  

“The District needs to monitor the development closely and update projections annually,” according to the report.

Davis Demographics and Planning prepared the report, with a purpose of identifying and informing the district of the trends occurring in the community; how these trends may affect future student population; and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts, according to the report.

Indeed over the last five years, all Santa Clarita Valley school districts have seen declining enrollments, which presents a funding challenge for locals schools in an area already funded at a lower rate than the state average, due to the state’s funding formula.

In the Castaic Union School District, for example, the school’s ADA, or the Average Daily Attendance funding (a district’s main source of revenue, which is the per-pupil funding amount a school receives based on its population, and a number of other factors relating to the cost of education) was about $9,051 per student, versus the statewide average for similar districts, which is $9,665. That also means a decline of 261 fewer students would represent a $2.3 million loss in funding.

Overview of the executive summary

The report is based on projections and approved plans, although, as previously stated, it notes the outcomes are subject to changing housing market conditions, among many other factors.

The Castaic Union School District has plans to eventually construct more schools, and DDP will utilize this report and the recently updated demographic data to help the District determine if any of these additional schools may be needed over the next seven years.

The report uses a  Seven Year Projection Methodology section discusses in detail how the factors used in the study were calculated and why they were used. These factors include: the calculation of incoming kindergarten classes, additional students from new housing (referred to as student yield), the effects of student mobility, and a detailed review of planned residential development within the District.

There has been very little if any new residential development in the Castaic area for the past five years, but things may be starting to change over the next 3-4 years. The residential development forecast contained in this report has only one potential new housing project that may start over the next 3-4 years (the modified Los Valles project by 2019). The Landmark Village project, which is the portion of the large Newhall Ranch development that is zoned for the Castaic area, is now expected to see its first occupants sometime in 2019/2020 at the soonest. The once dormant Tapia Ranch project is potentially starting up again with a Draft EIR. If all goes as planned, Tapia Ranch could see its first occupants by Fall 2020.

There are even talks that the long dormant Northlake project may begin again and are just in the early planning stages at the time of this report; therefore, these new units were pushed out sometime in 2021.

Elementary School conclusions

The Castaic USD had 1,650 TK-6 students as of October 2016, which is down 122 from what it had at the same time in 2015, and a continuation of a trend over the last few years (1,777 in 2015; 1,940 in 2014; 2,006 TK-6 in 2013; and 2,150 K-6 in 2012).

Currently, this averages out to be about 550 TK-6 students for the three existing elementary schools and that is expected to continue dropping over the next three years, the report states.

There is more than enough room in the existing three elementary schools to absorb any potential growth through 2022, with maybe some boundary adjustments.

The report also notes the district would like to keep its elementary schools’ capacities at or below 750 students.

Districtwide projections

In 2015, the Castaic USD officially changed their three elementary schools to from TK-5 site to TK-6 sites (same boundaries). According to the projections (see the District Summary on Page 20), the Castaic TK-6 student population could decline for the next three years (through Fall 2019) and then start to rise in 2020 when the large amounts of new housing is expected to begin again.

Over the past 17 years, a large amount of residential development has been built in the Santa Clarita Valley, especially from 2000-2006. However, since 2008 the construction of new housing has drastically declined in the Castaic area and there is only one known new housing project to start over the next few years (Los Valles in 2019). It may not be until 2019 or 2020 when the larger new housing projects are expected to begin.

The Landmark Village project, which is the northern portion of the enormous Newhall Ranch project being overseen by Newhall Land and Farming, is located within the Castaic Union School District boundaries and is expected to begin as soon as 2019. The Northlake and Newhall Ranch projects, which had been a large part of past projections, were both pushed out six years from now due to the uncertainty of their present status. As a result, the forecasts for the Castaic area show little or no growth until 2020.

As mentioned before, the Northlake housing project (can build up to 3,983 mixed units), which is located within the Northlake Hills Elementary School attendance area, has pushed out about five years due to the uncertainty of its present status. This housing project played a large part in keeping the Northlake Hills ES area fairly high in previous projections.

According to the projections, no new elementary site is needed over the next five years, however, if the new large housing projects begin as is anticipated in this report, then one may be needed by 2023 or shortly thereafter.