Provisional and absentee ballots could be the difference in
a very close race.
With 100% of precincts reporting, the 19th district State
Senate race between Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson
is separated by only 108 votes, with Jackson
in the lead.
With over 300,000 votes cast in this contest, that means the
provisional and vote-by-mail ballots that have yet to be counted will play a
The Strickland-Jackson race spreads across parts of Los
Angeles County, Ventura
County and Santa
Specific counties favored each candidate differently. Here
we breakdown the percentage difference between the candidates based on the
ballots already counted.
Barbara favored Jackson by 10%
favored Strickland by 5%
- Santa Clarita favored Strickland by 9%
While those numbers may seem to give Strickland an
advantage, the counties vary drastically in the number of votes.
Just like in Santa Clarita where some residents voted in the
George Runner-Bruce McFarland race and others in the Strickland-Jackson race,
Santa Barbara and Ventura county voters are split up amongst multiple State
Senate districts. Ventura accounts for
the largest number of votes in the 19th district race (roughly 59%), followed
by Santa Barbara (33%) and then distantly by Santa Clarita.
By those numbers, if the thousands of uncounted ballots
follow the same trend, Strickland’s 5% favor in Ventura County, which has
almost double the votes of Santa Barbara, would still be matched because Santa
Barbara’s voters favor Jackson by 10%.
Of course nothing is certain given how close this race is.
One thing our rough estimates can confirm is that this contest will most likely
end close enough to warrant every last vote. This could take the race well into
the week, if not longer if a legal battle ensues.