A Santa Clarita realtor is sharing his belief that the real estate market has reached its peak and will likely go down from here in a crash comparable to that of 2008, despite a number of what he called “false” reports claiming otherwise.

Rich Szerman of Alta Realty Group noted that a variety of recent reports coming from organizations he claims “have an interest” in promoting the real estate market may be misleading the public into believing that the market will continue to rise in the future.

“This is the trick here — they all use the year-over-year numbers, not the month-over-month numbers,” Szerman explained. “Looking at year-over-year numbers with any commodity is a good way to figure out what it was worth a year ago, but it’s not a very good way to figure out what it’s worth now.”

Related: Santa Clarita Realtor Empowers Homeowners Facing Foreclosure With Free Defense Services

In reality, Szerman is starting to see for-sale houses staying on the market longer, home sale prices dipping and sellers who are in a position where they need to sell because they can no longer afford to stay in their homes.

“The market has stopped going up, but you get these ridiculous false reports that say, ‘Well the numbers in July of last year were 33 percent higher than…’ — those are false,” Szerman said. “If you look at the month-over-month, the appreciation has stopped.”

This is made clear in the Multiple Listing Service known as the MLS, a database that realtors use as a tool which essentially “defines” the real estate open market, according to Szerman.

“If you look at the prices for any area, whenever there’s been a price reduction, you’ll see a little red arrow next to the price,” he said. “Right now, it looks like the MLS sheets are bleeding to death because there are red arrows all over the place. So be very, very, very, very wary about anyone who tells you that the real estate market is still going up, because all the evidence is to the contrary.”

In addition to what Szerman is seeing in the MLS, he referenced the following findings in what he views as reliable, accurate reports that were recently released:

• A UCLA professor who specializes in accounting and real estate is predicting a 5-10 percent reduction in the market in the near future;
• The number of price reductions in LA and Orange Counties is up almost 2.5 percent in the last few months, according to the real estate database company Zillow; and
• Sellers have been forced to drop their listing prices an average of almost 3 percent, also according to Zillow.

Further, in the local 100-plus zip codes the team at Alta Realty Group monitor for real estate market changes, Szerman noted that the number of Notice of Defaults — the first step in the foreclosure process — issued by banks increased a whopping 23 percent from July 2018 to August 2018, and Szerman believes that number “is going to keep going up.”

“It’s going to be bad,” he said. “Most of the supports that are supposed to prevent this from happening again have now been either watered down or destroyed entirely, so the banks have this attitude … that they can do no wrong.”

The “key” to avoiding becoming a victim of an impending real estate market crash, according to Szerman, is to be aware of the market and ensure that the numbers being presented by real estate professionals are accurate — meaning month-over-month, not year-over-year.

“Stop overpricing houses and things like that,” Szerman said. “If someone paints you a rosy picture and you decide to sign off on the bottom line because you like the sound of that rosy picture, just do your own research. Be a little smarter about it.”

Rich Szerman of Alta Realty Group is a Santa Clarita realtor who offers free foreclosure defense services, and offers several innovative programs that help clients buy a house, sell a house, and even save a house from foreclosure. The Rental Rebate Program gives clients back 10 percent of the rent that they’ve paid to go toward buying a house. The Resale Renovation Program gives clients money to fix up their house so it can be sold at a higher list price. The free Loan Modification Program helps clients at risk of foreclosure save their home by obtaining a loan modification. Not your average realtor in Santa Clarita, Rich Szerman answers phone calls and text messages 24 hours a day, and can be reached by email as well. 

Rich Szerman, Alta Realty Group

27451 Tourney Road, Suite 140

Santa Clarita, CA 91355

661-714-1400

RichSzerman@Gmail.com

Rich Szerman of Alta Realty Group, Santa Clarita

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQeF591BmBY&t=532s

Santa Clarita Realtor, Realtor in Santa Clarita, Rich Szerman, Alta Realty Group, Buy a House, Sell a House, Rental Rebate, Save a House From Foreclosure