An estimated one in three Los Angeles County residents have been infected with COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, according to new projections by county scientists.

This projection, based on statistical modeling conducted by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (DHS) COVID-19 Predictive Modeling Team, would put the number of cases at over 3 million, more than three times the number of reported cases reported by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LACDPH).

The gap between the reported number of cases in the county since the start of the pandemic, 958,497 as of Wednesday, and the modeling team’s projection is likely attributable to the long-held assumption that testing does not capture the total population of people infected. 

Some percentage of those infected go unreported as the virus doesn’t show symptoms or they only suffer mild symptoms.

Related: Los Angeles County Nears One Million Cumulative COVID-19 Cases

Their model also estimates that between 0.61% and 1.2% of everyone in L.A. County is currently infected and infectious to others. This translates to approximately 1 in 115 L.A. County residents that are currently infected and infectious to others, according to the DHS model.

Notably, there can be up to a two-week delay between when a person becomes infected with the virus and when they begin to show symptoms, which can impact the modeling team’s projections. 

The most recently available data included comes from Jan. 11, and therefore does not fully capture the impact from holiday gatherings. The team noted that their projections assume transmission rates did not increase over the holidays, so there is potential for their current projections to increase.

Available COVID-19 metrics have continued to surge since the holiday season, regularly setting daily records for total deaths and new cases.

“The damaging impact to our families and our local hospitals from this surge is the worst disaster our county has experienced for decades,” said Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. “As with other terrifying situations the end of this surge only happens when more people and more businesses take control and do the right thing, and we all do know what we need to do.”

The public health director urges residents to avoid all gatherings and crowds, including only shopping for essentials at off-hours. 

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