A very strong chance of El Niño weather conditions are forecast for Santa Clarita until at least spring 2019, according to officials.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the El Niño weather conditions will last a few more months this year, but they are very weak compared to previous years, according to officials.

Weather experts say that despite being widely reputed to be the cause of warm and wet winter storms, El Niño is not a guarantee of rain.

“It’s a statistical connection,” said Ryan Kittell, forecaster for the National Weather Service. “Looking at the past, we can see that El Niño is often connected to a wetter than normal winter. However, that’s not always the case as our strongest on record was a dry year.”

The historic 2015 and 2016 El Niño defied expectations as one of the strongest years on record, but this year shows no sign of being anywhere near as powerful.

“The El Niño phenomenon is crystal clear, as it’s based on the warmth of the water in the Eastern Pacific near South America,” said Kittell. “The waters are currently a little bit warmer than usual, but they may get into moderate as the season progresses.”

Though the El Niño phase is based on quantifiable data, how it relates to weather patterns in California and the rest of the Western United States is not clear.

“When the waters warm up, it brings the storms that would be further up north, down south, but the connection is still being studied,” said Kittell.

Forecasters are currently tracking another storm that could reach Santa Clarita by Sunday, bringing light rain to the area, according to officials.

Although maintenance crews are set to continue to work on keeping county roads open and facilities functioning, mud and debris flows can have a devastating impact, including loss of life and homes, according to officials.

Fire officials warn residents who live near previously burned areas to be prepared with sandbags, and the possibility of evacuating if conditions are not safe.

For more information on how to prepare, visit the county website here.

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