With fall approaching, the question remains the same: are we headed for La Niña or El Niño weather?

Officials with the National Weather Service are predicting that a La Niña is expected to come into play later this fall into winter, said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the NWS L.A.

A La Niña and an El Niño weather event are determined based on the temperature of the water near the equator in the middle to the eastern portion of the Pacific Ocean. If the water is cooler, it is a La Niña. If the water is warmer, it is considered to be an El Niño.

“Right now we are at normal temperatures, but all projections are showing it is going to be below normal by later fall or winter,” Kittell said.

The strength of the La Niña is still unknown, according to Kittell. However, predictions show a 20 percent chance of a moderate cold event.

The strength of La Niña is determined by the extent that sea surface temperature anomalies fall at or below the -0.5 C threshold, according to NWS officials.

A La Niña is classified as weak when the anomalies range from -0.5 C to -0.9 C, moderate when the anomalies range from -1.0 C to -1.4 C, and strong when the anomalies are -1.5 C or more, according to the NWS. 

“Most folks associate El Niño with a lot of rain, and La Niña with dry winter. This is used as a baseline for people in California,” Kittell said.

Looking back to 1950, when La Niña and El Niño weather events started being studied, this theory is true. However, Kittell said when it comes to weak and moderate events, it is not so much of a “slam dunk.”

“We have had a number of dry weak to moderate El Niños and wet weak to moderate La Niñas,” Kittell said.

The end of 2022 into the beginning of 2023 was considered a weak La Niña, and Southern California, including the Santa Clarita Valley, received record rainfall.  

So, with most of the models pointing towards a weak La Niña regarding how much rain and what temperatures are going to be like over the SCV, Kittell says, “Anything goes right now for our area.”

The Santa Ana winds are another less-studied trend that goes along with La Niñas and El Niños.

This year, Kittell says Santa Clarita can expect a more active Santa Ana wind event.  

In October 2019, Southern California was coming out of an El Niño headed into a La Niña, similar to now. Santa Clarita saw strong Santa Ana winds that drove the Saddleridge and Tick Fires.

Winds are the biggest driver behind brush fires, Sky Cornell, a spokesperson for the Los Angeles County Fire Department, said in a previous KHTS article.

In 2019, the Tick Fire, driven by Santa Ana winds, scorched 4,615 acres.

Around 15,000 homes – 40,000 people  – were evacuated,  making it the largest evacuation in the history of Santa Clarita.

The fire destroyed nearly 30 structures, 23 of which were homes and damaged an additional 44 structures.    

October of 2007  was another fall that tormented the Santa Clarita Valley, with multiple wind-driven fires sparking off left and right not only in the Santa Clarita Valley, but across Los Angeles County as a whole.

On Saturday night, Oct.20, 2007, the Ranch Fire sparked north of Castaic, off the I-5 and Templin Highway. While the fire burned quickly due to the winds, it did not immediately require evacuations. US Forest Service firefighters took the lead on the incident.

On Sunday morning, news of the wind-fueled fires in Malibu took center stage as homes were decimated. Many Santa Clarita firefighters and Sheriff’s deputies were assigned to aid in that fight.

In a fateful few moments Sunday afternoon, a 10-year-old boy playing with matches started the Buckweed Fire in Agua Dulce. The winds quickly pushed the flames in a southwesterly direction, bringing the destruction to Santa Clarita. The fire was moving too quickly for firefighters to fight traditional battles. Instead, they went house to house, extinguishing open flames as they saw them.

Meanwhile, the Ranch Fire in Castaic had grown to behemoth status, and evacuations were ordered for areas of Saugus, Canyon Country and Castaic.

By Sunday night, the Buckweed Fire had scorched land along Sierra Highway, Plum Canyon Rd and Bouquet Canyon. The latter saw perhaps the most severe damage, as a large section of Lombardi Ranch and the nearby ranch run by Heads Up Therapy on Horseback burned to the ground. Heads Up volunteer Jim Tindell was severely burned trying to escape the flames. 

Also under siege were the 100 residents of LARC Ranch, who watched as their pool building and ranch house were claimed by the Buckweed Fire. 

Making matters worse, the flames completely ruined the Vasquez Canyon Bridge, which serves as a key link between Saugus and Canyon Country.

Gusts up to 70 mph carried engulfed embers onto homes off Camp Plenty Road and the North Oaks neighborhood.

On Monday afternoon, sparks from a welding torch lit brush near The Old Road and Magic Mountain Parkway in Stevenson Ranch on the west end of SCV, sent a wall of flames to the Westridge Community. Fire crews dubbed it the Magic Fire and saved the homes in Westridge by deflecting the fire into rural land to the southwest.

That fire eventually burned nearly 2,000 acres before it was knocked down.

Monday night, flying embers from the Buckweed Fire created a raging inferno at a mobile home park on Soledad Canyon Road near Sand Canyon in Canyon Country. The 5-acre blaze destroyed two mobile homes and, at one point, jumped the 14 Freeway, where firefighters stopped it before it could reach the mouth of Sand Canyon. It took fire crews six hours to knock it down.

While the firestorm of 2007 may seem an extreme example, the dangers of La Niña-fed Santa Ana winds are a known danger to life and property. 

Considering the numerous emergencies that can strike the Santa Clarita Valley, residents should ensure that their Ready, Set Go plan is prepared.

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